A new 2025 Copper River sockeye salmon forecast released on May 13 by state fisheries officials predicts a potential commercial run of about 2.5 million fish, with a harvest of 1.9 million Copper River sockeye salmon — up from a 2024 harvest estimated at almost 1.3 million reds.
That would be 50% above the recent 10-year average (2015-2024) total run of 1,757,000 reds, Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) officials said.
The 2025 Copper River District commercial salmon drift gillnet fishery is scheduled to open at 7 a.m. for 12 hours on May 22 for sockeye and Chinook salmon.
Wild sockeyes in the Copper River district were forecast at 55% above the 10-year average. Copper River Chinook salmon forecasts were down 25% from the 10-year average and categorized as a weak run, while stocks of sockeyes from the Gulkana hatchery were forecast at 27% below the 10-year average.
State biologists noted that salmon forecasts are inherently uncertain and are primarily used to gauge the general magnitude of expected runs and set early season harvest management strategy. This year the department will manage Prince William Sound and Copper River area commercial salmon fisheries in-season based on the strength of salmon abundance indices — including sonar counts, weir passage, aerial escapement surveys and fishery performance data.
With the 2025 Copper River Chinook salmon run forecast weak at 36,000 fish, the plan is for conservative management.
Statewide, the ADF&G is expecting an increase in overall commercial salmon harvest, mostly due to an increase in pink salmon harvests.
The 2025 total commercial harvest of all salmon species is projected at 214.6 million fish, including 144,000 Chinook salmon, 52.9 million sockeye, 2.4 million coho, 138.4 million pink, and 20.8 million chum salmon.
Compared with the 2024 commercial harvests, the statewide projected 2025 commercial harvests are expected to include 98.2 million more pink salmon, 10.8 million more sockeye salmon, 544,000 more coho salmon, and 876,000 more chum salmon.
The ADF&G report noted there is a great deal of uncertainty in forecasting pink salmon returns due to their fixed two-year life history, and therefore limited information to serve as the basis for predictions. As a result, the report said, pink salmon harvest forecasts are generally based on harvests from previous years. However, a notable exception is in Southeast Alaska — where a joint ADF&G and NOAA survey and juvenile pink salmon outmigration index is the basis for predicting harvests for the following year.
